Willy Woo Predicts Bitcoin Collapse to $15,400

Blockchain analyst Willy Woo said Tuesday that bitcoin could still fall below the $20,800 level it set Monday evening, to the tune of at least 25 percent.

He said the assessment was based on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric he invented in 2018. “It tracks the age of coins moving to new buyers, the idea being when very old coins move to new buyers it raises the perceived floor value. ” Woo said, noting that CVDD sat at $15,400 as of Tuesday. “So there’s plenty of room to move lower.”

Bitcoin’s price was hovering slightly above $22,000 when Woo published his analysis, $1,200 higher than the short-term low set on Monday evening. As of late Tuesday, it had slid back to $21,500, perilously close to breaking through Monday’s level.

He said the majority of bitcoin holders were also still in profit compare to their cost basis — or the cost at which they purchased their coins. The measure serves as another method of finding bitcoin’s typical bottom during bear markets, and indicates that bitcoin is set to slide beyond the $20,800 level.

“Past generational bottoms happened when only 36-43 percent of coins were left standing at a profit,” Woo noted. “Right now, 51 percent of coins are still in profit.”

He said previous bottoms were set at 15 percent below realized price during the Covid-19 pandemic; 30 percent below in 2018; and 45 percent below in 2015. Bitcoin’s average realized price presently stands at $23,200, which would leave it standing at $12,760 in the event of a 45 percent drop.

Cumulative value days destroyed is a bottom model I created in 2018. It tracks the age of coins moving to new buyers, the idea being when very old coins move to new buyers it raises the perceived floor value.

CVDD sits at $15.4k so there’s plenty of room to move lower. pic.twitter.com/K6WcxRDNKb

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 14, 2022

More optimistically, bitcoin fell this week below its 200-week moving average, another metric for finding its typical bottom. That figure stood at $22,000 as of Tuesday.

Analysts have pointed out that bitcoin is likely to enter into a violent and irrational downward spiral if it ticks below $20,000 — or if Ethereum dips below $1,000. “If these levels break … we can expect massive sell pressure in the spot markets as dealers hedge themselves,” BitMEX and 100x founder Arthur Hayes wrote in a Monday evening Twitter thread. “We can also expect that there will be some [over-the-counter] dealers and that will be unable to hedge properly and might go belly up.

“As far as the charts go, you better get out your Lord Satoshi prayer book, and hope the lord shows kindness on the soul of the crypto markets,” Hayes added. “Because if these levels break, you might as well shut down your computer bc your charts will be useless for a while.”

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